What Promotion Trends at US Firms Signal About the Market

As the UK firm promotion season approaches, we stepped back to analyse the partner promotions that have already been made by the US firms in London.

With more than 70 US headquartered firms now established in London, and over 65 having announced partner promotions across Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 we reviewed promotion data from 2018 to today to see if there were any signals if may give about the current market.

Our analysis is below, but the three key takeaways that we had were:

• US firms remain firmly in growth mode in London, with promotion levels and ratios still above long-term norms.

• Promotion trends suggest improving transactional demand, particularly in Corporate and Banking.

• Private capital continues to drive strategic investment, with Funds standing out as the dominant growth area.

Total Number of Promotions:

The below chart shows the number of promotions made each year (with Q4 announcements rolled into the following year for consistency).

Number of promotions made each year. To ensure a more consistent and meaningful analysis, promotions announced by a small number of firms in Q4 are incorporated into the following year’s data.

Promotion numbers rose between 2018 and 2019, fell in 2020 and recovered in 2021, though not to pre- pandemic highs.   Promotions then accelerated sharply in 2022 and 2023, likely reflecting a combination of deferred COVID-era promotions and stronger market conditions.

This period of expansion was followed by a modest correction in 2024. However, 2025 and 2026 data points to renewed growth. Notably, 2026 has already matched 2025 promotion levels, despite several firms yet to announce, suggesting a strong likelihood of continued upward momentum.

Putting Promotion Volumes in Context

US firms have expanded significantly in London over the past decade, using a combination of lateral hiring and internal promotions.

As partner numbers grow, promotions are likely to naturally increase. A larger partnership brings increased retirements and turnover, which in turn supports a higher volume of promotions.

To account for the expanding partner base at US firms in London, we normalised promotion volumes by benchmarking them against total number of partners at the start of each year. This gives a clearer picture of whether firms are actually promoting more, rather than simply appearing to do so because their partnerships are larger.

The below graph shows this comparison as a percentage.

The data shows that 2022 marked a peak in promotions as a percentage of total partners, reflecting a period in which US firms were making a particularly strong push in the London market. Since then, rates have stabilised at just below 6%. For context, the equivalent rate at UK-headquartered international firms typically sits just under 5%.

This sustained gap reinforces a conclusion that US firms remain in expansion mode in London and have yet to reach a point of market saturation.

Focus on practice areas

Corporate, Banking, and Litigation together account for approximately 50% of all promotions at US firms.

Several patterns emerge from the data. Banking saw a clear uptick in 2021, while Corporate and Litigation remained relatively flat before both rising sharply in 2022. Since then, Litigation has eased slightly and stabilised at around 15 to 20 promotions per year.

A similar trend is evident in Banking and Corporate, where promotion numbers have moderated from their 2022–2023 peaks to a range of roughly 25 to 30. Despite this softening, levels remain comfortably above the pre-pandemic averages seen in 2018 and 2019.

So far, 2026 is tracking slightly below 2025 levels, although further announcements may yet narrow the gap.

Of the other practice areas there are three that stand out – Competition, Funds and Restructuring.

Competition, a practice area that has seen a notable increase in lateral partner hiring in recent years, has also experienced a rise in internal promotions. Given the volume of large-scale M&A deals that came to market last year, it looks like the US firms were ahead of the curve and ensured they were well prepared for regulatory complexities that will come with such deals.

Funds has been the standout growth area, with 20 promotions in 2025 alone, this is equivalent to 14.5% of the Funds partner population at the start of that year. This highlights both the scale of expansion in this space and the sustained demand for private capital capabilities. Promotion numbers have fallen back a little in 2026, but are still higher than 2023.

Restructuring saw a steady increase in promotions between 2019 and 2022, but since then there has been a steady decline, which may reflect improving market conditions and softening demand.

So What Does This Mean?

Much of the market commentary focuses on lateral partner hiring, and for good reason. Lateral moves are highly visible, inherently strategic, have increased steadily year-on-year and provide for all year round commentary.

However, promotions arguably tell us something more fundamental.

Lateral hiring is strategic, but is also to some extent opportunistic. Firms act when the right talent becomes available, often irrespective of short-term market conditions. A lateral hire is a strategic bet, one that may not http://demand.inpresent itself again.

Promotions, by contrast, are entirely within a firm’s control. They can be accelerated, reduced, or deferred depending on market conditions.

Choosing to promote, therefore, is a signal of confidence, not just in individual performance, but in the firm’s ability to generate sufficient, sustainable work to support a larger partnership in the office. In that sense, promotions can signal a forward-looking statement about the firm’s confidence in its pipeline, its clients, and the resilience of its underlying practice areas.

While each firm’s decisions will reflect its own strategy and circumstances, viewed in aggregate the promotion activity can give a barometer of overall market confidence.

Considering this and looking at the above data, we drew three key points :

• US firms remain in growth mode in London. Promotion levels and ratios indicate continued expansion rather than consolidation.

• The outlook for transactional work is improving . Promotion activity for corporate and banking suggest confidence in the near to mid-term deal activity.

• Private capital continues to drive strategic investment. The scale of and consistency of Funds promotions is striking and reinforces the central role of private capital as part of the US firms strategy in London.

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